Author: Balaguru Mamundi

Title: Cannes do: On a big win for indie cinema at the 77th edition of the film festival

The moment after Payal Kapadia scripted history by becoming the first Indian film-maker to win the Grand Prix award at the Cannes film festival for All We Imagine as Light will be etched in cinematic memory. As the 38-year-old walked to the stage, she pulled along the three main women protagonists of her film, Kani Kusruti, Divya Prabha and Chhaya Kadam, and the four posing with the prize has become the shot of the 77th edition of the festival, definitely for Indians. Bagging the second highest honour after the Palme d’Or (which went to American director Sean Baker’s Anora) for her trilingual debut feature, an Indo-French collaboration, which shines a light on the story of two Malayali nurses and migrants working in ‘Maximum City’ Mumbai, is a big win for indie cinema. The last time an Indian film was in the competition section was 30 years ago with Shaji N. Karun’s Swaham in 1994. “Please don’t wait 30 years to have another Indian film,” Kapadia said in her acceptance speech. Eschewing the usual song-and-dance trope or larger-than-life heroes, Kapadia’s film is about a friendship between three very different women. She said friendship is a very important relationship for her, “because it can lead to greater solidarity, inclusivity and empathy towards each other. These are the values we should all be striving for”.

The other important takeaway is Kapadia’s remark that “it takes a village to make a film”. Thanking her cast and crew, Kapadia talked about the Indian film-making ecosystem — “There are interesting films being made in India, and I am only a product of that.” She also rooted for the Film and Television Institute of India (FTII), with which she had a run-in in 2015, where she said she watched world cinema. She was effusive about the strong film industry presence in most States, singling out the Malayalam film industry for its support to good cinema. India clearly made a splash at Cannes this year, with Kolkata’s Anasuya Sengupta winning the Best Actress in the Un Certain Regard section for her turn in Konstantin Bojanov’s The Shameless; British-Indian film-maker Karan Kandhari’s Sister Midnight in the parallel Director’s Fortnight selection; FTII student Chidananda S. Naik’s short Sunflowers Were The First Ones To Know winning the top prize in the official LaCinef section, Cannes’s competition for film school students; Cannes Classics releasing a remastered Manthan, Shyam Benegal’s 1976 film, and so forth. For Kapadia, this was her third outing in Cannes — she had won the best documentary prize in 2021. With the Grand Prix prize just three years later, Kapadia will inspire young independent film-makers to tell their stories, and, hopefully, get the backing they deserve.

Meaning of the word:

Title: Absolute numbers: On the ECI and faith in the process

A total of 58 Lok Sabha seats in eight States and Union Territories voted on Saturday in the sixth and penultimate phase of the general election 2024. With this, polling has been completed in 28 States and Union Territories, in 486 constituencies. Voting is also over for 105 Assembly constituencies of Odisha. The last phase of polling will be on June 1 for the remaining 57 seats and counting of votes will take place on June 4. Sporadic incidents of violence were reported from West Bengal which also reported the highest polling percentage at 79.47. In Jammu and Kashmir, the Anantnag-Rajouri seat recorded a turnout of 54.30%, an impressive high. Urban apathy continued in the seven seats of Delhi which went to the polls with just 57.67% of the electorate turning out to vote. The searing heat wave prevailing in north India did not help matters. The Election Commission of India (ECI) released, for the first time in this general election, the absolute number of votes cast in each constituency for the first five phases. The ECI came out with the data a day after the Supreme Court of India refused to direct the commission to disclose details of Form 17C, which contains this data at the booth level and is handed out to all the polling agents of the candidates.

The ECI has alleged, inappropriately, there to be a “pattern of false narratives and mischievous design to vitiate electoral process”. It is true that concerns have been raised by several actors about the electoral process, and it is possible that a part of it could be due to ignorance or even out of mischief. A mature and appropriate response expected of the body that is tasked with overseeing the largest democratic exercise on the planet is to provide information to the public that removes such concerns. The commission opposed the disclosure of Form 17C in the Supreme Court — all the while insinuating at a conspiracy to vitiate the electoral process. Complaints brought to its attention by anyone should be addressed in a manner that behoves a robust democracy. It is indeed the duty of the ECI to ensure that the electoral process is not vitiated, and the best way to achieve it is to ensure the maximum transparency that is administratively possible. The ECI has done well by publishing the data on the absolute number of voters, and it could proactively look for more measures that could reinforce public faith in the process and in its own integrity.

Meaning of the word:

Title: Snap poll: On the surprise election announcement for the U.K

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak sprung a surprise election announcement when he revealed that the United Kingdom would head to the polls on July 4. While the incumbent government of the Conservative Party was not required to call for an election until January 2025, almost since the day Mr. Sunak entered 10 Downing Street, most polls have suggested that his party would lose the next election by a margin of over 20%, the likes of which are “usually only seen at exceptionally bad moments in the midterm”. It is possible that Mr. Sunak and his team seized upon the political capital that may accrue to them from the recent announcement that the U.K.’s inflation rate has dropped to 2.3%, the lowest in at least three years. There might have been a few other factors including a positive assessment of Mr. Sunak’s cabinet in steadying the economic ship in the post-COVID-19 scenario, and a legal victory securing the government’s plans to implement immigration reforms that will see some asylum seekers sent to Rwanda to have their applications processed there.

While it is true that polls suggest voter frustration at the end of 14 unbroken years of rule by the Conservative Party, Mr. Sunak’s comment that this election will take place at a time where the world is “more dangerous than it has been at any point since the end of the Cold War”, is not without merit. Indeed, the denouement of the long-drawn Russian invasion of Ukraine could make or break the security paradigm for Europe and the U.K., including not only serious questions regarding territorial sovereignty on the eastern front but also energy security with knock-on effects for prospects for economic stability. Similarly, the churn in West Asia, including the humanitarian tragedy unfolding in Gaza and the strategic churn punctuated by the threat of war in the Iran imbroglio, will have echoes throughout the region and certainly for the U.K. Finally, it is unclear that even with the Rwanda plan receiving a legal green light, the Sunak government has been able to have a tangible impact on small boat crossings at a broad level. Contrarily, government statistics indicate that even though such arrivals dropped by around 33% during 2022 and 2023, boat crossings for 2024 are at a “record high” by comparison, and between January 1 and May 21 of this year more than 9,800 people crossed the U.K.’s border through such means. In this context, his remark that the Labour Party would want people to think “this election is over before it’s even begun” might not be wrong, but he and his colleagues would do well to ask where the opposition’s confidence in this regard stems from.

Meaning of the word:

Title: Justified balance: On the ICC move against Israel, Hamas

In seeking arrest warrants against the leadership of Hamas as well as of Israel, the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) has taken a welcome first step towards accountability for the war crimes committed since October 7, 2023. It was the day Hamas launched its deadly attacks, killing over 1,200 Israelis and taking at least 245 hostages. The Israeli military retaliation on Gaza has been brutal and relentless, and the death count has crossed 35,000 people, most of them women and children. The application for warrants, which will be decided by a Pre-Trial Chamber of ICC judges, will naturally have a greater impact on Israel than on the non-state group. Israel’s immediate concern is the moral equivalence the prosecutor has made in levelling charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity against both the national leadership of a democracy and an armed group that wants to destroy it. Save for Israel’s diehard supporters, including the U.S. and some other governments, few would disagree with the balance sought to be struck by ICC Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan. It may not be flattering for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant to be named for war crimes and crimes against humanity alongside Yahya Sinwar, head of the Islamic Resistance Movement, or Hamas, Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri alias Deif, commander-in-chief of the Al-Qassam Brigades, and Ismail Haniyeh, who heads the Hamas Political Bureau.

It would have been impossible, however, for the ICC prosecutor to ignore what the Israeli leadership has been accused of — starvation as a method of war and intentionally killing and directing attacks against civilians, among others. Hamas has been accused of extermination, murder, rape, torture and taking hostages. Israel has predictably questioned the application, repeating its position that it is engaged in legitimate self-defence. To many, the arrest warrants may appear futile. Those against whom warrants have been issued, but remain unexecuted, include Russian President Vladimir Putin and Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir. However, regardless of the efficacy of such measures in preventing or punishing war crimes, the step does entail diplomatic costs, as member-countries of the ICC are obliged to arrest and hand over those against whom warrants are pending under the Rome Statute, the treaty that created the ICC mechanism. It may increase Israel’s isolation on the one hand, and harden the U.S.-Israeli position on the Palestinian question on the other. Israel, like the U.S., is not an ICC member-state; but as the Putin precedent shows, this may not be an impediment to the issuance of warrants against its leaders. On the flip side, Mr. Netanyahu will likely use this to shore up his position at home.

Meaning of the word:

Title: Vote for a change: On the voter in Kashmir

 The voter turnout in the Srinagar and Baramulla constituencies in the Kashmir valley — Anantnag-Rajouri is to vote on May 25 after the Election Commission of India postponed the election — is well below the national average. While Srinagar registered only 38.5%, preliminary figures from Baramulla indicate a turnout of 59.1%. The national average for the first four phases was 66.95% and 61.61% in the fifth phase, according to early trends. Yet, these numbers in the Valley are salubrious compared to the past — 13% in Srinagar and 34.6% in Baramulla in 2019. Baramulla registered its highest turnout since 1984 (61.1% participation). In the last six years, the elected Assembly was dissolved, the erstwhile State of Jammu and Kashmir bifurcated into two Union Territories, the special status of the province abrogated by the BJP-led Union government, and the Valley subjected to months of Internet shutdowns. Scores of politicians were also arrested. Kashmir still remains India’s most securitised region with recurring militant violence. While local body elections have been held since then, the general election is the first major poll with significant contestation involving the Valley’s mainstream polity.

Should the increase in turnout be read as a significant reduction in the alienation of the Kashmiri people? The answer is not unambiguous. A substantive section of the voters who turned out have sought a change in the status quo. The limitations on political activity in the Valley since 2018 have constrained citizens who have had little recourse to airing their grievances due to the absence of legislative representation in the Assembly. Thus, livelihood concerns have not been sufficiently addressed, and the greater electoral participation now reflects the need for representation of the electorate’s voices. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has stated that the higher polling in these two constituencies is the “greatest testament to rightness” of abrogating the special status that was enshrined in Article 370 — a statement devoid of reason. A truer reflection of the support for the abrogation would have been a favourable mandate for parties endorsing the move, but the BJP did not even field candidates in the Valley. It is clear that it saw the writing on the wall in terms of how it was perceived in the region. Mr. Shah and the BJP should not misinterpret the reasons for the increase in voter participation. The voices in the Valley have given way to some using the ballot box as a medium to get the region out of its political morass. The Indian state must listen and make amends.

Meaning of the word:

Title: Talking peace: On Ukraine and the Switzerland organised peace conference

Two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Switzerland has stepped in to organise a peace conference, making a special effort to broaden global consensus on the war by enlisting those who have not joined the western coalition thus far. As a close partner of Russia, a member of the BRICS and SCO groupings, a leader in the Global South, and an aspirant to world leadership, India is, no doubt, at the top of the list. And the Swiss Foreign Secretary Alexandre Fasel’s visit to Delhi this week, following closely those of two Swiss Ministers, and the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba over the past few months, is evidence that the invitation to India at the head of state/head of government level is a priority. Of the 160 or so countries that invitations for the conference have gone to — it is to be held in the resort town of Bürgenstock on June 15-16 — about 50 have confirmed their attendance, mostly from the European Union, NATO alliance, G-7 countries and U.S. allies such as Japan, South Korea and Australia. Russia has not been invited, and Mr. Fasel made it clear that their diplomacy was hoping to bring over ‘BICS’ leaders (BRICS minus Russia) so they could convey the outcomes to Moscow, with a view to inviting Russia to a future round of talks. With Brazilian President Lula indicating that he would not attend, and South Africa’s citing its general elections on May 29 to formally decline the invitation, all eyes are on whether Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, if he is re-elected, or official nominees would attend.

Convincing the rest of the world to attend a platform that appears stilted towards Ukraine remains a tall order for the organisers. While Switzerland prides itself on its “neutrality”, it has already chosen sides in the current conflict by imposing sanctions on Russia. Another venue may have appeared more impartial. The agenda for the conference is to build a framework for or road map to peace, and to discuss issues such as ensuring food security and freedom of navigation, nuclear safety and humanitarian issues. It seems unlikely that much headway can be made on any of these issues without both parties to the conflict at the table. It is also hard to foresee what else can be achieved as long as Russia and Ukraine believe they can make or consolidate more gains on the battlefield — a real negotiation begins when either one or both sides believe they have exhausted military options. If the aim of the conference then is, as Russian President Vladimir Putin says, to “pressure” Russia into announcing a ceasefire or ceding territory it has won, then it is hardly likely to succeed, given the UN General Assembly’s failure to bring such pressure through multiple resolutions. New Delhi, that has thus far refused to join any statement that is overtly critical of Russia, and has not diluted ties with Moscow, may thus find it easier to hedge its bets, and only show its hand once a truly balanced and more inclusive peace effort gets under way.

Meaning of the word:

Title: Death of a President: On Iran’s Ebrahim Raisi

The death of Iran’s eighth President, Ebrahim Raisi, and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in a helicopter crash in northwestern Iran amid bad weather has sent shockwaves across West Asia. Raisi and others, including local officials, were travelling to Tabriz after inaugurating a dam with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, on the countries’ shared border when his chopper went down in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province. Raisi, a conservative cleric, rose to power in 2021 after eight years of rule by moderate President Hassan Rouhani, who signed the 2015 nuclear deal with the U.S. and other world powers. Mr. Rouhani’s promise of change and prosperity through dialogue did not materialise as the then U.S. President, Donald Trump sabotaged the deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran. When moderates lost their face and morale, the conservatives tightened their grip on the state through Raisi. A confidant of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Raisi escalated a crackdown on civil rights at home, strengthened Iran’s ties with Russia and China, doubled down on its support for non-state militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah and expanded Iran’s nuclear programme. In three years, he emerged as one of Iran’s most powerful men and was seen as a potential successor to Mr. Khamenei.

The death of the President could not have come at a worse time for Iran. It is already struggling to stabilise a stricken economy, battered by U.S.-imposed sanctions, and trying to calm social tensions. The nuclear deal remains dead and West Asia is on fire. In April, Raisi oversaw an unprecedented attack on Israel following Israel’s strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Israel’s meek response avoided an all-out war but tensions remained high. In recent years, Iran has also lost key officials. In the deaths of Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian, the Islamic Republic has lost an experienced, crisis-hardened cleric administrator and a seasoned diplomat. It is understandable that Iran would need time to get over the shock that it is in now. Given the geopolitical tensions, Raisi’s death could also fuel conspiracy theories, which could further inflame the region. So, it is imperative for Iran to get to the bottom of the crash. Another priority is that the transition to a new presidency is handled smoothly. First Vice-President Mohammed Mokhber will assume interim presidential powers and the country is expected to hold a presidential election within 50 days. A change in presidency is unlikely to alter Iran’s foreign policy direction, but the loss of one of the most experienced and ideologically disciplined defenders of the revolution and a transition amid domestic and regional uncertainties, is an added challenge to the Islamic Republic.

Meaning of the word:

Title: Trade imbalance: on India’s merchandise exports

India’s merchandise exports, which shrank over 3% in 2023-24 — a year marred by multiple geopolitical and logistical disruptions to global trade — are off to a positive start this year, but only just. This April recorded outbound shipments worth $34.99 billion, reflecting a meagre uptick of 1.07% or $370 million from a year ago. As many as 17 of India’s top 30 export items reported year-on-year contractions, compared with 13 in the previous month. Significantly, these declines are over a weak base — in April 2023, goods exports had tanked 12.7% and 20 of the top 30 items had reported a fall in export values. The minor growth last month was largely driven by just four items, pharma, chemicals, electronics and, most importantly, petroleum products, which recovered from a 35% contraction in March, aided by the rise in global oil prices. On the flip side, the surge in oil and gold prices through April lifted the country’s goods import bill by 10.25% to over $54 billion. As a result, last month’s trade deficit was the highest in four months at $19.1 billion, and nearly 22.5% over March’s gap. If the OPEC+ club, which meets in early June, decides to extend output cuts, oil prices could well hit $100 a barrel. Moreover, a persistent global savings rush to gold as a safe haven, could keep pushing India’s favourite yellow metal’s prices higher. Apart from the deleterious effects of such a scenario on the domestic front (through higher fuel prices, for one), the trade balance and the rupee would be under pressure.

Global trade volumes, after tanking 1.2% in 2023, are expected to rise 2.6% this year, as per the World Trade Organization. The government is hopeful that India’s key markets in the western world clock lower inflation and improved growth rates, spurring a demand bounce. However, India needs to sharpen its approach to capitalise on such a bounce and ensure that any gains that may accrue will create wealth across the domestic economy. This requires addressing the challenges facing labour-intensive sectors such as garments and footwear, where the country has been losing out to rivals, including Bangladesh and Vietnam, in recent years. The downward trend for these sectors, as well as gems and jewellery, continued in April. Tackling concerns about product quality (in spices or drugs, for example) or allegations about labour or environmental concerns (aimed at booming shrimp exports) with greater vigour, is also critical. Moreover, agricultural exports, curbed in the battle against inflation, must be reinvigorated soon, given the healthy monsoon prospects. The next government must roll up its sleeves quickly to rev up the export growth engine and ensure trade balances do not turn unwieldy.

Meaning of the word:

Title: Crime and time: On election-time incarceration  

Any inconsistency in judicial decisions is bound to be seen as unequal application of rules. On the principle of parity, former Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren, who leads the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, is arguably entitled to interim bail to enable him to campaign in his home State for the next phases of the general election, from May 20. Mr. Soren was arrested on January 31. It was only last week that the Supreme Court of India underscored the importance of the general election to grant bail to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal up to the end of the polls. Although the opinion was based on “the peculiarities of the person in question and the surrounding circumstances”, a principle did emerge from that ruling that key leaders could be allowed to campaign in the interest of electoral democracy. However, the Court chose the position that it first needs to hear the other side, the Enforcement Directorate in this case. Even though it favoured a hearing in the week beginning May 20, it agreed to an earlier date, May 17. It is a legal requirement that any order of bail can be given only after hearing the prosecution’s objections. In Mr. Kejriwal’s case, the Court heard and rejected the argument that freeing a political leader solely indeed for the purpose of canvassing votes during an election will amount to privileging the political class above other categories of people arrested for similar offences.

The Jharkhand High Court did not deliver judgment on the petition challenging Mr. Soren’s arrest for two months, resulting in a delay in his approaching the Supreme Court. Ultimately, it passed an order dismissing his plea on May 3, having reserved its verdict on February 28. It is true that no two cases are comparable. While the Delhi Chief Minister is facing the charge of bribery in exchange for adopting an excise policy favourable to some manufacturers, Mr. Soren is accused of laundering the proceeds of crime in the illegal sale of a parcel of land to acquire property in Ranchi. With the prosecution depending mainly on approvers’ statements against Mr. Kejriwal, and the agency banking on documentary evidence against Mr. Soren, there may be differences in the respective merits of their cases. The stringent provisions for bail in the Prevention of Money Laundering Act have the unfortunate effect of making courts consider the overall merits of a case at the bail stage itself. It is unfortunate that the relatively simple act of releasing the accused against bail bonds, with attendant conditions to safeguard evidence and prevent them from fleeing justice, has become politically sensitive. Election-time incarceration, which renders the playing field disadvantageous to the affected parties, adversely affects the democratic spirit.

Meaning of the word:

Title: Lame excuses: On Manipur and the ethnic conflict

It has been over three years since the coup d’etat in Myanmar in which the usurped junta absolute power and unleashed severe repression in order to clamp down on any demands for a return to democracy or granting more power to the marginalised ethnic identities in the civil war-prone country. Facing repression such as brutal bombing and the displacement of entire villages, many citizens, particularly those from ethnic minorities, have sought refuge in neighbouring countries including India. Many refugees from Myanmar’s Sagaing region and Chin State have fled the junta’s violent campaigns and headed to Mizoram and Manipur. While in Mizoram, refugees, of Chin ethnicity in particular, have been treated favourably, with the Mizo people regarding them as ethnic brethren, those in Manipur have not received such treatment from the government led by Chief Minister N. Biren Singh. Manipur has continued to conflate the issues related to the refugees fleeing Myanmar with that of cross-border drug trade. Ever since the ethnic violence between the Kuki-Zo community and the majority Meitei community last year, this refrain by the Manipur government, which has not hidden its preponderance to act as an ethnic majoritarian regime, has led to the stigmatisation of the refugees and policies that are in stark contrast to Mizoram’s humanitarian approach.

Moves such as seeking to end the Free Movement Regime, that is seen as favourable by the citizens of both countries, the announcement that India will fence the 1,643 km India-Myanmar border and Mr. Singh’s statement that 5,457 “illegal” migrants were found in Manipur’s Kamjong district should be seen in this light. The Chief Minister has repeatedly maintained that the conflict, which has killed more than 220 people, displaced over 50,000 people and resulted in injuries to thousands, besides creating a siege mentality among the Meitei and the Kuki-Zo communities, is a consequence of his government’s actions against “poppy cultivation” and “illegal immigration”. This is both an over-simplification and a biased view of the ethnic conflict that has raged in the State because of the inability of the Biren Singh government to rise above the ethnic fray and build confidence measures that could win the trust of the Kuki-Zo community. That the violence has been followed by the brazen militarisation of Manipuri society, in the hills and in the valley, with vigilante groups armed with sophisticated weapons, causing law and order problems, and impeding security personnel seeking to impose law and order, reflects even more poorly on the government. Unless there is a change, both in approach and in leadership in Manipur and the way it has treated the conflict, the situation will continue to fester.

Meaning of the word: