Author: Balaguru Mamundi

Title: Matters of heartland: On election 2024 and the Hindi heartland 

The Hindi heartland, more often than not, decides who forms the government in Delhi. Of the 189 Lok Sabha seats in the six States of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, U.P. and Uttarakhand that make up the very core of this territory, votes have been cast for 71 seats, in the first two phases. In Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan — where the BJP won the Assembly polls last year — the two principal national parties are in a direct contest which could determine who gets to lead the next government. For the BJP, the general election had begun on a high note with Prime Minister Narendra Modi setting the target of 400 seats for the party and its allies to win, even before the poll notification on March 16. The very next day, he even asked the Cabinet to draft the plan for the first 100 days of the next government which he is confident of forming. The Opposition on the other hand, began its campaign from a position of relative weakness and far less enthusiasm. The constituents of the INDIA bloc were still fighting among themselves on the seat-sharing formula. Developments since then have led to fresh questions. The Supreme Court-dictated disclosure of electoral bond data, and the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal by the ED, were two events that energised the Opposition’s low-key campaign and highlighted the issues of economic downslide, inflation and unemployment.

The BJP is trying to counter this with a far sharper cry on nationalism, and Hindu consolidation. It terms the Opposition as being ‘anti-Santana dharma”, and is targeting the Congress and labelling its manifesto as having an “imprint of the Muslim League”. An apparent fear among Hindu subaltern segments with regard to the ‘400-plus’ slogan has now put the BJP on the defensive. Statements by BJP leaders that a massive majority will enable it to rewrite the Constitution have been read as a threat by OBCs, Dalits and tribal communities. The BJP, with its ears to the ground, heard the fear, reflected in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speeches ahead of polling for the first phase, where he assured voters that the Constitution would not be tampered with. The BJP campaign is focused on explaining that there is no threat to caste reservations from it. And it accuses the Congress of planning reservations for Muslims. In the heartland where caste and communal identities are locked in a complex interplay, the BJP’s success is determined by religious mobilisation that overwhelms caste. The Congress’s promise of policies that advance economic and social justice are also at the centre of the campaign. While the Congress’s hope is to galvanise the poor and the subaltern castes, the BJP is trying to instigate fear of a socialist dictatorship. That it is addressing the poorest of the country with the fear of redistribution of wealth is a particularly striking paradox of the heartland.

Meaning of The Word:

Word	Meaning	Synonyms	Antonyms
Enthusiasm	refers to a strong and passionate feeling of excitement, eagerness, or fervor towards something. It’s that bubbling energy within us that propels us to engage enthusiastically in activities, pursue goals with vigor, and approach life with a positive attitude.	1)Passion 2)Zeal 3)Eagerness 4)Excitement 5)Ardor	1)Apathy 2)Indifference 3)Disinterest 4)Lethargy 5)Passivity
Dictated	The word “dictated” typically refers to the act of giving orders, commands, or instructions with authority.	1)Commanded 2)Ordered 3)Mandated 4)Directed 5)Prescribed	1)Suggested 2)Advised 3)Proposed 4)Recommended 5)Counseled
Disclosure	refers to the act of revealing or making something known, especially information that was previously kept private, secret, or unknown.	1)Revelation 2)Admission 3)Declaration 4)Exposure 5)Divulgence	1)Concealment 2)Secrecy 3)Suppression 4)Withholding 5)Hiding
Consolidation	refers to the process of combining separate parts or elements into a unified whole, typically to make something stronger, more coherent, or more effective.	1)Integration 2)Unification 3)Combination 4)Merging 5)Fusion	1)Disintegration 2)Fragmentation 3)Dispersal 4)Separation 5)Division
Subaltern	originally referred to a subordinate or lower-ranking person within a social hierarchy, particularly in military contexts.	1)Subordinate 2)Inferior 3)Dependent 4)Secondary 5)Lower-ranking	1)Superior 2)Dominant 3)Principal 4)Leader 5)Superior
Overwhelms	is a verb that describes the act of overpowering or engulfing someone or something with a strong and intense force, emotion, or influence.	1)Overpowers 2)Overcomes 3)Subdues 4)Engulfs 5)Swamps	1)Underwhelms 2)Underpowers 3)Undercomes 4)Subdues   5)Relived
Dictatorship	is a form of government characterized by a single leader or a small group of individuals holding absolute power and authority, often without meaningful checks or balances.	1)Autocracy 2)Totalitarianism 3)Authoritarianism 4)Despotism 5)Tyranny	1)Democracy 2)Republic 3)Self-governance 4)Liberalism 5)Freedom

Title: Towards a green growth: On the RBI and a green taxonomy

A notable feature of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) latest Monetary Policy Report (included in its April Bulletin) is the primacy given to “extreme weather events” and “climate shocks” affecting not only food inflation but also likely having a broader impact on the natural rate of interest, thereby influencing the economy’s financial stability. Natural, or neutral, rate of interest refers to the central bank’s monetary policy lever, which allows it to maintain maximum economic output, while keeping a check on inflation. The report mentions a “New-Keynesian model that incorporates a physical climate risk damage function” being used to estimate the “counterfactual macroeconomic impact of climate change vis-à-vis a no climate change scenario”. The report’s authors go on to warn that the “long-term (economic) output” could be lower by around 9% by 2050 in the absence of any climate mitigation policies. They ominously add that ‘if inflation hysteresis gets entrenched, it may lead to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the undermining of the central bank’s credibility would warrant higher interest rates to curb inflation, leading to greater output loss’.

Beginning with its July 2022 discussion paper on ‘climate risk and sustainable finance’, the RBI has made incremental progress to address the transition to a green economy, even while admitting that India requires over $17 trillion to achieve its net zero ambitions by 2070. Its peers in advanced economies, most notably the European Central Bank, have aided the formulation of a green taxonomy for the entire Eurozone’s economic value chain. A green taxonomy is a framework to assess the sustainability credentials and possible ranking of an economic activity. The RBI and the Finance Ministry could take inspiration from the developing world, especially the ASEAN region, where a layered green taxonomy as a living document keeps getting updated with sectoral views of possible sustainable trajectories. While the issuance of ₹16,000 crore worth of Sovereign Green Bonds and expanding the resource pool by allowing Foreign Institutional Investors to participate in future green government securities are welcome steps, the RBI must undertake a thorough-going assessment on the quantitative and qualitative impact on economic and financial stability due to climate change. It must encourage administrative consultation to begin populating a layered green taxonomy that is reflective of India’s fragmented developmental trajectories. The effort should be to mitigate the transitional risks to the financial system as the economy moves towards a sustainable future.

Meaning of The Word:

Word	Meaning	Synonyms	Antonyms
Primacy	refers to the state or condition of being first in order, importance, or influence. In various contexts, it can imply superiority, precedence, or priority over others.	1)Precedence 2)Supremacy 3)Superiority 4)Preeminence 5)Dominance	1)Subordination 2)Inferiority 3)Secondary status 4)Mediocrity 5)Subjugation
Influencing	refers to the action or process of exerting an effect or impact on someone or something. When someone influences another person, they are causing that person to change their opinions, beliefs, behaviors, or decisions in some way.	1)Impacting 2)Shaping 3)Guiding 4)Affecting 5)Swaying	1)Ignoring 2)Neglecting 3)Disregarding 4)Avoiding 5)Resisting
Hysteresis	refers to a phenomenon where the response of a system to a change depends not only on the immediate input but also on its history or past inputs.	1)Lag 2)Delay 3)Residual effect 4)Memory effect 5)Time delay	1)Responsiveness 2)Simultaneity 3)Immediate response 4)Promptness 5)Synchronicity
Credibility	refers to the quality or attribute of being believable, trustworthy, and reliable. When something or someone is deemed credible, it means that they are considered to be truthful, competent, and worthy of trust or confidence	1)Trustworthiness 2)Reliability 3)Authenticity 4)Integrity 5)Dependability	1)Unreliability 2)Untrustworthiness 3)Doubtfulness 4)Suspicion 5)Dubiousness
Taxonomy	refers to the science or practice of classification, especially in biology. It involves organizing and categorizing organisms into hierarchical groups based on their similarities and evolutionary relationships.	1)Classification 2)Categorization 3)Systematics 4)Organization 5)Arrangement	1)Disorganization 2)Chaos 3)Randomness 4)Disorder 5)Unsystematic

Title: Stability in Maldives: On the election results and India ties 

There are several important messages from the win by Maldives President Mohammad Muizzu’s party, the PNC, in this week’s parliamentary elections. The PNC’s “super-majority” — over 70 of 93 Members of Parliament or People’s Majlis, including allies and independents — also eases Mr. Muizzu’s path to passing laws and even making constitutional amendments. The opposition in the Majlis, led by the former ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), that was perceived as “pro-India” won just 12 seats, while parties floated by the former Presidents, Abdullah Yameen and Mohammad Nasheed drew a blank. Mr. Muizzu will be in the spotlight for how he wields the near-absolute power, in a country which has seen authoritarian rule for decades. The results also indicate widespread approval by Maldivians of decisions he has made since he was elected in November 2023 including his international visits to China, Turkey and the UAE, and receiving U.S. senior officials, while keeping a relative distance from India. During his meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in December, he insisted on a total withdrawal of Indian troops maintaining aircraft for humanitarian operations in the archipelago, which he has now enforced. He has also scrapped a hydrography agreement with India, while strengthening ties with China, to “rebalance” and end dependence on any foreign power. Meanwhile, Maldivian leaders and commentators have expressed concern over majoritarian trends in India. Derogatory comments about Mr. Modi by Maldivian Ministers have added to the unease in India. Indian tourist figures have also dropped.

With the Maldivian results in, and the Indian election results in June, New Delhi and Male have an occasion to try and mend their frayed ties. Relations have been traditionally good, and should not oscillate with changes in each government. Unfortunately, this has been the trajectory for the past decade. Mr. Muizzu’s statement that rather than “pro-India” or “pro-China”, he intends to build a “pro-Maldives” policy must be tested against his actions while giving him time to prove that none of those actions is to the detriment of India’s security or regional peace. Given Maldives’s economic troubles and development needs, its challenges with climate change, and its geographical allure for the U.S. and China, it is only a matter of time that the relative comfort of stronger ties with India and its policy of sustainable financing and support, becomes apparent to Male. To be truly successful, a mutual policy of “Neighbourhood first” can only be voluntary and based on mutual trust and interests.

Meaning of the Word:

Word	Meaning	Synonyms	Antonyms
Perceived	refers to the interpretation or understanding that individuals derive from various stimuli such as language, symbols, actions, or experiences.	1)Interpreted 2)Understood 3)Conceived 4)Viewed 5)Discerned	1)Misinterpreted 2)Misunderstood 3)Ignored 4)Overlooked 5)Disregarded
Authoritarian	typically refers to the interpretation or understanding associated with authoritarianism, a political system characterized by strong central power and limited political freedoms.	1)Dictatorial 2)Totalitarian 3)Autocratic 4)Oppressive 5)Despotic	1)Democratic 2)Liberal 3)Free 4)Egalitarian 5)Libertarian
Insisted	refers to the interpretation or understanding that is forcefully asserted or emphasized by someone.	1)Asserted 2)Emphasized 3)Stressed 4)Affirmed 5)Maintained	1)Relented 2)Yielded 3)Suggested 4)Proposed 5)Conceded
Trajectory	typically refers to the direction or path of development or change over time.	1)Path 2)Course 3)Route 4)Track 5)Direction	1)Stagnation 2)Standstill 3)Regression 4)Deviation 5)Departure
Detriment	refers to the negative consequence, harm, or disadvantage caused by something.	1)Harm 2)Damage 3)Disadvantage 4)Loss 5)Injury	1)Benefit 2)Advantage 3)Gain 4)Improvement 5)Asset

Title: Surat symptoms: On the BJP and the elimination of political contest  

A malady that enfeebles Indian democracy — the elimination of contest, at the level of ideas, and political mobilisation — got a geographical tag in Surat, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate has been declared elected unopposed to the Lok Sabha. Democracy without an Opposition ceases to be one, but the ruling BJP has declared it as an objective in its slogan, a Congress-less India. Such an intent is in itself authoritarian, even if pursued through fair electoral means. What unfolded in Surat is far from fair: it was the foulest of tactics outside of any electoral play book. Signatories of Congress candidate Nilesh Kumbhani’s nomination papers declared on affidavit that their signatures were forged. All political parties routinely field a dummy candidate to deal with the unlikely event of the primary candidate’s death or rejection of nomination papers. In Surat, Suresh Padsala, who was fielded by the Congress as dummy, also had his nomination papers rejected after one of his proposers declared on affidavit that his signature too was forged. Eight other candidates withdrew their nominations, leaving the BJP candidate, Mukesh Dalal, as the only one standing. He was promptly declared the winner on April 22 by the Surat District Collector and also returning officer, and the BJP began celebrations. If at all the unopposed election of the BJP candidate signifies an absolute consensus among Surat’s nearly 17 lakh voters, it is a silence that speaks loudly about a serious illness in India’s democracy.

This elimination of contest through the misuse of state power, money, and misinformation has become a major threat to Indian democracy. Another candidate picked by the Congress in Gujarat not only left the party but also joined the BJP within a few days. Mr. Kumbhani’s proposers were his brother-in-law, nephew and a business partner, and the story of their forged signatures does not sit well in a functioning democracy. Mr. Kumbhani is not protesting either. He has gone incommunicado. Early this year, an election officer himself tampered with the ballot to declare the BJP candidate the winner in the Chandigarh mayoral election — a result which was overturned by the Supreme Court of India. It is unlikely that the contest would have been close in Surat, had it happened. The BJP had won the seat with massive margins in all Lok Sabha elections since 1989. Therefore, the point about the uncontested election of Mr. Dalal is the extermination of the Opposition rather than about his own victory. Contestations of ideas and their synergies over centuries have made India hospitable for democracy. The BJP needs to evolve a political culture in which disagreements with opponents are negotiated through fair contests.

Meaning of the word:

Word	Meaning	Synonyms	Antonyms
enfeebles	is a verb that means to make someone or something physically or mentally weak or feeble. It implies a gradual or progressive weakening or deterioration of strength, energy, or vitality.	1)Weakens 2)Debilitates 3)Impairs 4)Diminishes 5)Undermines	1)Strengthens 2)Fortifies 3)Invigorates 4)Energizes 5) Bolsters
pursued	is the past tense of the verb “pursue.” It means to follow or chase after someone or something in order to catch or reach them, or to strive to achieve a goal or aim.	1)Chased 2)Followed 3)Tracked 4)Hunted	1)Fled 2)Avoided 3)Escaped 4)Evaded
affidavit	is a written statement of fact voluntarily made by an individual under oath or affirmation, typically used as evidence in legal proceedings.	1)Sworn 2)statement 3)Testimony 4)Deposition 5)Attestation	1)Denial 2)Contradiction 3)Refutation 4)Disavowal 5)Repudiation
incommunicado	is an adverb and adjective that describes a state of being isolated or cut off from communication with others, especially intentionally or forcibly.	1)Isolated 2)Secluded 3)Cut off 4)Detained 5)Confined	1)Communicating 2)Connected 3)Accessible 4)Available 5)Open
synergies	refers to the combined or cooperative effects produced by the interaction of different elements, which result in an outcome that is greater than the sum of their individual effects.	1)Collaborations 2)Cooperation 3)Combinations 4)Alliances 5)Partnerships	1)Disunity 2)Discord 3)Disharmony 4)Dissension 5)Fragmentation

Title: Insuring the future: On health insurance and a wide demographic of citizens

The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI), the apex regulator of insurance products, has asked companies to enable a wide demographic of citizens to benefit from health insurance. Most significantly, it directs insurance providers to make health insurance available to senior citizens, as those above 65 are currently barred from issuing new policies for themselves. This is clearly an acknowledgement of demographic changes underway in India. Though India’s population figures have not been officially accounted for since 2011, estimates from the UN Population Fund and experts suggest that India’s is nearly level with China and may have surpassed it sometime in 2023. The India Ageing Report 2023, which draws from UN projections, estimates that India’s cohort of seniors — those above 60 — will increase from about 10% of the population (149 million in 2022) to 30% (347 million) by 2050. That is more than the current population of the U.S. Several of the most developed countries already have their senior demographic (65-plus) ranging from 16% to 28%. That is already precipitating considerable worry within these populations on access to health care, affordable medicine and appropriate care-giving infrastructure to support them. Some of these economically developed countries have government-funded public health systems and others are entirely dependent on private health care, with cost being a significant determinant in access to quality care. In many of these countries, there is no entry barrier to health insurance policies, though, following principles of actuarial economics from centuries ago, health insurance gets progressively, and sometimes exponentially, more expensive as age advances.

Already the small, single-digit percentage of India’s economic elite can afford the equivalent of “family floater” plans that take care of individuals and their parents at a cost lower than what individual senior-citizen health insurance would cost. If the only effect of the IRDA’s recent circular is to provide many more unaffordable health insurance policies, it would be equivalent to admiring the icing on an inedible cake. Much has been made of the next two decades being critical to India’s future, on the reasoning that this is the time that India must reap its ‘demographic dividend’. This is premised on a large proportion of the workforce moving out of agriculture and inevitably followed by a breakdown of the traditional care-giving structure for the aged. The experience in several southern Indian States is telling. Thus, broadening the eligibility of health insurance should be accompanied by a massive upgradation of affordable health care.

Meaning of The Word:

Word	Meaning	synonyms	antonyms
surpassed	means to exceed or go beyond something in quantity, quality, or degree.	Exceeded Outstripped Surmounted Transcended Outpaced Outdid Beat Excelled Overshadowed Surpassed	Lagged Fell behind Failed to reach Trailing Underperformed Fell short Lagged behind Lost ground Dropped below Subpar
cohort	refers to a group of individuals who share a common characteristic or experience within a defined period. In demographic or social research, a cohort typically refers to a group of people who were born during the same time period and share certain characteristics, such as age or generation.	Group Category Set Class Generation Batch	Individual Singular Solitary Alone One Singleton
precipitating	is an adjective that describes something that causes or triggers a particular event or situation to happen suddenly or unexpectedly.	Triggering Prompting Provoking Initiating Inducing Instigating	Preventing Halting Hindering Stalling Delaying Inhibiting
Progressively	is an adverb that means gradually, steadily, or incrementally over time.	Gradually Steadily Incrementally Continuously Increasingly Consistently Continually	Abruptly Suddenly Instantaneously Rapidly Drastically Erratically Inconsistently
Premised	is the past tense or past participle form of the verb “premise.” In this context, “premise” means to base or establish something on a particular idea, assumption, or condition.	Based Founded Grounded Rooted Built on Hinged on Established on	Unsupported Unsubstantiated Unfounded Unsupported Baseless Unproven Unwarranted
inevitably	is an adverb that indicates something is certain to happen, unavoidable, or bound to occur as a result of certain conditions or circumstances.	Unavoidably Unerringly Irresistibly Ineluctably Necessarily Unescapably	Possibly Avoidably Optionally Contingently Perhaps Uncertainly
broadening	is the present participle form of the verb “broaden,” which means to make something wider, more extensive, or more inclusive.	Expanding Diversifying Enlarging Widening Extending Increasing	Narrowing Restricting Shrinking Constricting Limiting Contracting

Title: The lone candidate: On chess, India and D. Gukesh’s victory 

Dommaraju Gukesh’s victory at the Candidates chess tournament in Toronto in the early hours of Monday (Indian time) ranks among India’s greatest achievements in sport. Later this year, he will play China’s Ding Liren for the World championship, as the youngest challenger in history. In chess, unlike in most sports, the World champion has the privilege of defending his crown without playing a single game, while his challenger has to come through the gruelling Candidates tournament. The field was expectedly tough in Toronto, where the World No. 2 and No. 3, Fabiano Caruana and Hikaru Nakamura, had begun as the favourites, followed by Ian Nepomniachtchi, the winner of the last two editions of the tournament. Few would have imagined that a 17-year-old from Chennai would finish ahead of them. Not only is Gukesh exceptionally talented but he also has a mature head on his young shoulders. His victory further India’s stature as the fastest rising country in world chess. He was not the only Indian in Toronto. There were five: three in the open section and two in the women’s. And all of them did fairly well, despite going through slumps in form at some stage or the other of the tournament. R. Praggnanandhaa and Vidit Gujrathi had their moments though they lacked consistency.

In the women’s event, Koneru Humpy (second) and R. Vaishali (fourth), showed resilience after the disappointments in the opening half. Tan Zhongyi was the runaway winner and she has ensured the women’s World championship will remain in China: her opponent is Ju Wenjun. Gukesh has an excellent chance to prevent China from making it a double yet again. Now, though, it is time for India to celebrate his spectacular feat. Then, the chess federation, the government and the corporate world could think of ways to retain India’s momentum in chess. Gukesh had qualified for the Candidates after playing a Super Grandmaster tournament in Chennai in December. That hastily conceived tournament served its purpose. Without it, Gukesh simply would not have been able to make it to Toronto. But what is equally significant is the fact that it was India’s first ever tournament of its kind. When the five-time World champion Viswanathan Anand was among the world’s top players for decades, he had not got an opportunity to play even once in a tournament like that in India. The only world-class tournament in India is the one organised by Tata Steel in Kolkata, but the format is speed chess, not the classical variety employed at the Candidates and the World championship. There should be more elite tournaments in India.

Meaning of the Word:

privilege	refers to unearned advantages or benefits that individuals receive simply by being part of a particular group or having a certain characteristic, such as race, gender, socioeconomic status, or sexual orientation.
gruelling	describes something that is extremely demanding, exhausting, or physically and mentally challenging.
resilience	refers to the ability to bounce back, recover, or adapt successfully from adversity, challenges, or difficult situations.
hastily	is an adverb that describes doing something quickly or in a hurry, often without taking the time to consider all the details or consequences thoroughly.

Sobering assessment: On the IMF forecast, World Bank report

The global economy has avoided the spectre of a debilitating recession, with the IMF last week raising its forecast for worldwide aggregate growth in 2024 to 3.2%, from the 2.9% it had projected in October. The IMF has underlined the fact that the global economy has, with surprising resilience, ridden out several adverse shocks as well as ‘significant central bank interest rate increases aimed at restoring price stability’ and sustained the growth momentum, largely on the back of advanced economies led by the U.S. undergirding demand. However, the Fund has also pointed to a growing gulf between the economic north and south by observing: “A troubling development is the widening divergence between many low-income developing countries and the rest of the world. For these economies, growth is revised downward, whereas inflation is revised up.” These poorest countries, in Africa and including some Latin American, Pacific island and Asian nations, had also suffered the most scarring from the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of estimated drop in output relative to pre-pandemic projections, and were struggling to recover. To compound their woes, these economies were now saddled with a mounting debt service burden that was severely impairing their ability to spend on vitally needed public goods including better education, health care and social nets to improve food security.

The IMF’s twin development lender, the World Bank, has, in a separate report, pointed out that for the first time in this century, half of the world’s 75 poorest countries were experiencing a widening income gap with the wealthiest economies, marking a “historic reversal” of development. As the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist Indermit Gill observed in a blog post on the lender’s site, “[the 75 poorest countries] are home to a quarter of humanity — 1.9 billion people… and are home to 90% of people facing hunger or malnutrition”. More distressingly, while these countries were midway through what he termed, potentially ‘a lost decade’, Mr. Gill averred that the rest of the world was “largely averting its gaze” even as the governments in at least half these nations were mostly paralysed by debt distress. Citing the examples of South Korea, China and India as countries that had transitioned from being borrowers of low-interest loans from the World Bank’s International Development Association into economic powerhouses that were today IDA donors, the Bank’s chief economist stressed it was imperative that the world’s richer countries financially support the poorest nations. Given that the world needs to tap every reserve of economic potential to achieve universal peace and prosperity, it can ill afford to turn its back on a quarter of its people.

Meaning of the Word:

Spectre	typically refers to a ghostly or haunting apparition, often associated with supernatural or paranormal phenomena.
Debilitating	means causing someone or something to become weak or feeble, often to the point of being severely impaired or disabled.
Widening	means to become larger in width or extent, or to increase the gap or difference between two things
Saddled	means to burden or encumber someone or something with a difficult or undesirable responsibility, problem, or situation
Averred	means to assert or declare something in a confident and emphatic manner.
Imperative	means absolutely necessary or essential. In the context of the paragraph, it emphasizes that it is crucial and unavoidable for the world’s richer countries to financially support the poorest nations in order to achieve universal peace and prosperity.
Prosperity	refers to a state of being successful, flourishing, or thriving, especially in terms of financial wealth and well-being

Rain Shocks:On the Monsoon in 2024

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a bountiful monsoon. Rainfall from June-September is expected to be 6% more than the 87 cm, which is considered to be the average rainfall the country receives during these months. This is a fairly bold forecast by the agency that, typically in its April forecast, avoids suggesting either surplus or deficit rain. Given that temperatures in many southern States are soaring and stoking heatwaves, the anticipation of bountiful rainfall might sound like welcome news. There is however a dark cloud to this silver lining. The IMD’s climate models suggest a 30% chance of “excess” rains — defined as more than 10% of what is usual. By comparison, its expectation of “above normal” rains is 31%, defined as between 5%-10% of what is normal. The slim difference suggests that excessive rains are as likely as merely ‘above normal’ showers. Most of these rains are expected in the second half of the monsoon, or August and September. The IMD’s models forecast for this are premised on the development of a La Niña, or a converse of the El Niño (which more often than not results in a decrease in monsoon rainfall). The La Niña is also expected to be aided by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, characterised by a cooler than normal Indian Ocean in the east as compared to the west, that helps bring rain to several States in southern India. The IMD is silent on the quantity of rains in June and July but expects “neutral conditions” (neither El Niño, nor La Niña) to be prevalent that time. Two arid monsoon months and torrential rains in the last two may be fine for agriculture but is likely to result in extreme floods and — as has been observed in the past — immense damage to lives, livelihoods and infrastructure.

The 2018 floods in Kerala continue to be a reminder of how vulnerable India is to natural disasters. While an update to the forecast is expected around the end of May, the IMD’s current signal must be urgently heeded. States must, at the soonest, draw up emergency plans from their disaster-management modules to bolster infrastructure, prepare evacuation plans, conduct audits of the structural stability of dams and their distress-signalling network and ensure that broader early-warning networks are in place. Also, India’s farmers, a majority of whom continue to be dependent on rain-fed agriculture, must also be informed of the possibility of a stronger, second half of the monsoon and incorporate these in their sowing operations.

Meaning of the Word:

bolster	can be both a noun and a verb. As a noun, it refers to a long, firm pillow or cushion used to support the head or back. As a verb, it means to support or strengthen something, often by adding extra material or support.
vulnerable	describes being susceptible to physical or emotional harm, attack, or damage. It suggests a state of being open to potential harm or danger, often due to weaknesses or lack of protection.
prevalent	describes something that is widespread, commonly occurring, or generally existing in a particular place or at a particular time.
bountiful	describes something that is plentiful, abundant, or overflowing in quantity or quality. It suggests a generous amount or a rich supply of something.
stoking	typically refers to adding fuel to a fire to keep it burning or to make it burn more fiercely. Figuratively, it can also mean to intensify or increase something, such as emotions or a situation, often in a deliberate or provocative manner.

In the fray: On the CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey 2024 findings

In a country the size and diversity of India, voter choices can be a bundle of contradictions that require careful parsing to unpack and understand. On the one hand, the CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey 2024 findings, that unemployment and price rise are the issues of most concern to prospective voters, come as no surprise. In a country with a large youth population and a relatively low per capita income, the lack of sufficient jobs and the persistence of high inflation should be major issues of concern. The survey also reveals that more than half the respondents felt that corruption had increased in the last five years. In its 10-year term, the performance of the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government on the economic front has been rather mediocre, with little being done to lower unemployment even as it has pursued policies that have significantly benefited the elite over the masses. Even as the BJP seeks to emphasise issues such as the inauguration of the Ram temple and Hindutva at high decibel level in its campaigning, the survey reveals that these two issues do not have a high resonance in comparison to livelihood concerns. But the survey also shows that the BJP and its allies have a comfortable 12 percentage point lead over the INDIA bloc, with “leadership” and socio-cultural issues determining higher preference for the ruling party.

The dichotomy in voter perceptions on key issues versus their possible choices provides comfort and concern to both the alliances and the other parties in the fray. While the BJP has engaged in bluster about winning nearly 400 of the 543 seats in Parliament, the chief concerns related to the economy suggest that the party is not having it as easy as it did in 2019, despite the gap in vote shares as expressed in the survey. As for the Opposition, harping on an alternative agenda related to the economy and livelihood concerns could provide it with an opening to narrow down the gap in vote shares in the run-up to the actual hustings. While the poll survey had not focused on State-level dynamics, recent Assembly elections have shown a sharpening of the north-south political divide, with the BJP unable to sway the south on socio-cultural issues as much as it is able to do so in the Hindi heartland and other areas. That close to half the respondents laid out livelihood issues as key concerns should provide an opportunity for the political messaging across the country to be a contest of ideas — about which political group offers the best deal in addressing these concerns. Lastly, it is alarming that nearly 58% of the respondents had lost some or a great amount of trust in the Election Commission of India. The institution must address concerns about the voting process, while asserting its independence in order to regain trust.

Meaning of The Word:

contradictions	refers to a situation where two or more statements, ideas, or beliefs are in direct conflict with each other.
parsing	refers to the process of analyzing a string of symbols (usually text) according to the rules of a formal grammar.
mediocre	describes something that is of average or moderate quality, neither particularly good nor particularly bad.
emphasis	refers to special importance, value, or prominence given to something. When you emphasize something, you draw attention to it, highlighting its significance or relevance.
dichotomy	refers to a division or contrast between two things that are represented as being entirely different or opposed to each other.
bluster	typically refers to loud, boastful, or aggressive speech or behavior that is intended to impress or intimidate others.
asserting	refers to stating or expressing something confidently and forcefully, often with the intention of making it known or understood clearly.