Author: Balaguru Mamundi

Title: For plurality: On CSDS-Lokniti’s post-poll survey

A drop in satisfaction levels with governance, the stagnating popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the resilience of regional parties and the rejuvenation of the Congress party, and the fading of Hindutva for marginalised sections in the Hindi heartland. All these contributed to the National Democratic Alliance’s reduced majority in the 2024 general election, according to the CSDS-Lokniti’s post-poll survey. In its pre-poll survey, the agency had indicated that “unemployment” and “price rise” were key issues for a majority of the electorate and despite the healthy 46% support for the NDA, a chunk of those favouring the incumbents were willing to back the Opposition during the course of the election. The final vote share for the NDA, at 43.6%, was 1.4 points lower than what the constituents of this year’s coalition received in 2019 even as the INDIA bloc secured a significant 41.4% support (if the Trinamool Congress’s shares are included), a leap from 2019. In the previous Lok Sabha election, the Balakot action, the PM-Kisan scheme and 10% reservation for the Economically Weaker Sections category had helped the Bharatiya Janata Party romp home with 303 seats, according to Lokniti. But this time around, multiple narratives and political issues tied the party down in its strongholds. Even its ascendance in Odisha and Telangana was not enough to recoup its losses in the Hindi heartland.

The strong support by Dalits, other OBCs and minorities to the Congress in States such as Uttar Pradesh, and the Samajwadi Party’s terming the BJP’s agenda as a threat to the Constitution put the wind in the Opposition’s sails. That Congress leader Rahul Gandhi enjoyed a four-point lead (36% versus 32%) over Mr. Modi among respondents in Uttar Pradesh, when asked about their preference for the Prime Minister’s post, must alarm the BJP. Clearly, the party can no longer expect to rely on Hindutva as a cementing factor except in States such as Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, which are distinguished by a lack of a diligent Opposition. For the INDIA bloc, and the Congress in particular, its credible performance notwithstanding, its task is cut out in these States. The Congress also increased its vote share in Karnataka from what it was in the 2023 Assembly elections, but the NDA’s strong social coalition proved a hindrance in converting those increased votes into more seats. The message for the Opposition is clear — wherever it is in power, it must strive to provide a clear alternative to the NDA in terms of governance. And where it is not in power, it must rely on building unity among like-minded forces and a narrative of bringing change through alternative policies that offer a strong contrast to the centralising and unitary nature of the BJP.

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Title: Recalcitrant jumbo: On inflation

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has for an eighth consecutive meeting chosen to leave the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.50% on concern that ‘elevated food inflation could derail’ its efforts to ensure durable price stability. Governor Shaktikanta Das, who had just two months ago spoken of the ‘elephant’ of inflation having begun its journey back to the forest after going on a walkabout, flagged the risk that stubborn food price gains pose to the overall disinflation path as justification for the MPC’s stand. Food inflation as measured by the Consumer Food Price Index accelerated to a provisional 8.7% in April, from March’s 8.52%, and recent indicators such as Crisil’s food plate costs suggest that price gains spurred by a surge in tomato, onion and potato prices may have quickened even further in May. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) forecast on June 8, that headline retail inflation likely increased by 31 basis points last month to 5.14%, driven almost entirely by a 40 basis points acceleration in food price gains to 9.1%. The MPC, which voted by a 4-2 majority to “remain focussed on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation progressively aligns to the target” of 4%, flagged the challenges it faces in achieving this goal as increasing adverse climate events trigger supply shocks that make it very hard to foresee the food price trajectory. The CMIE cited last month’s heatwaves as the cause for the rise in the costs of fruits and vegetables.

The MPC is also only too aware that besides the threat from escalating food costs, which remain vulnerable to the precariously low water storage levels at the country’s reservoirs as well as the ongoing exceptionally hot summer temperatures, rising prices of industrial metals could undermine the deflationary trend in core inflation. Add to the mix the uncertain outlook for crude oil prices given the tensions in West Asia and the output cuts being implemented by the OPEC+ producer nations, and it is a recipe for heightened uncertainty on the inflation path. The RBI’s latest round of surveys underline precisely why price stability is the central concern for policymakers. While households’ surveyed in May expect inflation to quicken for all major product groups, both over the three months and one year ahead periods, consumer confidence too moderated from the March round of the survey with an increased majority of almost 80% of respondents expecting price gains to accelerate in one year’s time. Governor Das is absolutely justified in maintaining an unwavering focus on anchoring inflation expectations, given that it is, as he put it, “the required foundation for sustained” long-term growth.

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Title: Bizarre judgment: On the Madhya Pradesh High Court’s order

It is an old principle that ignorance of law is no excuse. Evidently, this applies not only to offenders but also to judges. The Madhya Pradesh High Court’s order ruling declining to give protection to a couple on the ground that a marriage between a Muslim man and Hindu woman will not be valid, even if registered under the Special Marriage Act (SMA), 1954, reflects an incredible misunderstanding of the law. The judge examined Muslim law treatises to conclude that a Muslim cannot marry an “idolatress or fire-worshipper”, as such a marriage would be irregular. The SMA was passed precisely to allow inter-faith couples to get married without the requirements of marriage rituals associated with their religions. For a court to dissect the personal law requirements of the parties to enter into a valid marriage, when all they wanted was police protection to appear before the Marriage Registration Officer, is nothing short of bizarre. The question raised by Justice G.S. Ahluwalia — whether the inter-faith marriage that was intended to be registered under the SMA will be valid under Muslim law — is utterly irrelevant to the case at hand. Even though counsel for the couple advanced the correct argument that the Special Marriage Act would override the personal law of their respective religions, the judge chose to examine whether such a marriage would be valid or void or irregular under Mohammedan law.

The judge concedes that when a marriage is performed under SMA, it cannot be challenged on the ground of non-performance of mandatory marriage rituals. The only justifications offered by the judge is that the SMA itself provides that when the parties are within the degrees of prohibited relationship, it shall not be valid. From this, he draws a conclusion that a marriage that is invalid in personal law cannot be legalised by registering it under the SMA. It is clear that this is only a salutary provision that exists to prevent the Act from being misused to solemnise the marriage of those in prohibited relationships, and does not mean that every inter-faith marriage has to be scrutinised for compliance with personal law requirements. It is strange that the court underscores that the woman petitioner in this case did not want to convert to Islam, but at the same time examines the case through the lens of Muslim law. This is nothing but an attempt to impose religious personal law on those opting for a secular marriage. Allowing this judgment to stand will render the entire Special Marriage Act superfluous. It will also undermine any move towards a uniform civil code, and privileges Muslim personal law over the secular Special Marriages Act. In effect, it could drive people to religious conversion just for the sake of solemnising their marriages.

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Title: A new era: on the South Africa general election

The African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s ruling party that led the country out of apartheidthree decades ago, suffered a setback in the May 29 general election when it lost its majority in Parliament for the first time. In the final results on Sunday, the ANC, currently led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, saw a dramatic fall in its vote share to 40.18%, from 57% in 2019, while the main opposition Democratic Alliance emerged as the second largest party with 21.81% vote. The surprise was the surge of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), a left-wing party founded in December and led by Jacob Zuma, the scandal-ridden former President, which secured 14.58% of the votes. The far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by Julius Malema, former ANC Youth League leader, came fourth with 9.52% vote. The ANC’s decline itself was not surprising, from the peak of its popularity in 2004, when it won nearly 70% vote. A whopping 17 percentage point drop in vote share points to the rapid erosion of confidence the electorate has in the party which was once led by Nelson Mandela.

When Mr. Ramaphosa became President in 2018, after Mr. Zuma was forced to resign, he promised economic stability, employment and modernisation of infrastructure. But under six years of his rule, there has been little progress in addressing the critical problems of Africa’s most advanced economy, which has shrunk over the past two and a half years. Officially, at 32%, the country has one of the highest unemployment rates. Voters also complain about a lack of quality water supply, hours-long power blackouts and rampant violent crimes. After three decades of ANC rule, nearly two-thirds of Black South Africans are living in poverty, as compared to 1% of white South Africans. The ANC knew voters were upset, and Mr. Ramaphosa sought votes in the name of the party’s legacy rather than its performance. But voters did not buy into his arguments. The ANC breakaway parties winning more votes than the right-wing Democratic Alliance suggests that the legacy of anti-apartheid politics remains strong, despite the ANC’s decline. The three opposition parties have shown an interest in coalition talks, but with riders. The MK will join hands with the ANC only if Mr. Ramaphosa steps aside and the EFF has a radical economic agenda, including expropriation of land. A tie-up with the Democratic Alliance, which is largely seen as a representative of the apartheid era, would not be popular with the ANC’s base. Mr. Ramaphosa is in an unenviable position. The era of the ANC’s dominance is over. He should form a coalition that would not mar the party’s anti-apartheid legacy and keeps it in good stead so that it can focus on resolving the country’s myriad economic woes.

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Title: Splash back: On test flights of private rockets, the prospects

On May 30, a start-up named Agnikul Cosmos successfully conducted the first test flight of its rocket ‘Agnibaan’ in a mission called ‘Suborbital Tech Demonstrator’ (SOrTeD). The flight was Agnikul’s fifth attempt after the first four were called off owing to suboptimal launch conditions. ‘Agnibaan’ is a two-stage, 14-tonne launch vehicle designed to lift small satellites to low-earth orbits. Both stages are powered by bespoke semi-cryogenic engines. The test flight flew a ‘minimal’ version of the rocket with one engine (or stage). Notably, many of the vehicle’s components, including the engines, are 3D-printed, and Agnikul has said it will be able to build one rocket a month. With the test flight, Agnikul took ‘Agnibaan’ on its first steps towards being a full-fledged launch vehicle, which will expand India’s commercial launch services offering in keeping with the expanding market for small satellites and the services they can provide. The roster is currently dominated by the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) and will soon be joined by the Small Satellite Launch Vehicle, both of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). One blip Agnikul will have to address is the subpar communication of the parameters of the test flight. This is one area in which ISRO has not distinguished itself and it is important for new space startups to steer clear of the same mould.

This said, the flights of ‘Agnibaan’ — and Skyroot’s ‘Vikram’ in 2022 — herald two prospects more valuable than commercial fortune. ISRO and/or scientists trained there have shared technical know-how and provided physical systems for many private missions, which these startups are now testing, cutting short the time and expenses required. Likewise, these startups are poised now to light the way for ISRO and others, potentially accelerating innovation in the sector. For example, ISRO has been testing a semi-cryogenic engine of its own that could draw from lessons learnt at Agnikul. The government must ensure that the corresponding bureaucratic and legal frameworks encourage the free flow of knowledge. Second, in April, ISRO said it had developed engine nozzles made of a carbon-carbon composite to replace the Columbium alloy nozzles on the PSLV’s fourth stage. The switch increased PSLV’s payload capacity by 15 kg — a significant amount for an already technologically mature launch vehicle, made possible by education and research opportunities that allowed know-how accrued in some sectors to disperse in others. This privilege is currently most pronounced in India’s spacefaring enterprise. As more innovation enters the fray, it is hoped that the resulting solutions and insights will benefit everything, from aerospace to zoology.

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Title: Trust in continuity: On the Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim results

The verdicts to the Assembly elections in India’s easternmost and smallest State by population, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim, respectively, might not be a harbinger of what is to come in the 2024 general election. But the decisive victories achieved by the incumbent parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Arunachal Pradesh and the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) in Sikkim, indicate that the electorates in two States, overwhelmingly, preferred continuity over change. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu and his party received a strong mandate, winning 46 out of the 60 seats and increasing the BJP’s tally even further by five seats. Mr. Khandu enjoys the reputation of running a stable government in the State, far from the tumultuous period in 2016 when he took over the reins. With a focus on welfare delivery and infrastructure development that has further connected the State to the rest of the country, Mr. Khandu has earned the confidence of the electorate. The BJP-friendly parties, the National People’s Party and the People’s Party of Arunachal, also registered five and two wins each, while the Opposition Congress’s tally was reduced to just one seat. Supporters of the BJP and its main leader, Mr. Khandu, would celebrate the fact that in 10 out of the 60 seats there was no contest, which limited the chances of any upset. But this does not bode well for the State as a robust contestation of ideas and policies is a must for a functioning democracy.

Arunachal Pradesh would do well not to go the Nagaland way where, technically, there is no opposition as all the parties that contested against the BJP-Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party coalition joined the alliance after the elections in 2023. In Sikkim, the SKM, led by Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang won 31 out of the 32 seats, with a lone seat going to the erstwhile dominant Sikkim Democratic Front. The SKM’s victory in a multi-cornered fight was made possible by the regional assertion by the party which mobilised support on the issue of retaining Sikkim’s special status enshrined in Article 371F of the Constitution, on Mr. Tamang’s promises to deliver Scheduled Tribe status to some Nepali-origin communities, and his emphasis on job creation in the State. Sikkim’s ruling party might have fought against the BJP and the latter might have drawn a blank, but the SKM still considers the BJP an ally. Notwithstanding the strong identity based politics in the north-east, voters choose the national party ruling at the Centre or its ally, dependent as these States are on central government funds. The overwhelming mandate in his favour should help Mr. Tamang, who will have to use all of his diplomatic powers to ensure benefits from the Union government.

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Title: For a consensus: On campaigning rhetoric and foreign policy

With the curtains coming down on the general election 2024, every party will take stock of its campaign on issues of domestic political importance. However, it is also necessary for all concerned, particularly those forming the next government, to review the disturbing trend of revisiting questions of foreign policy. Both sides have ratcheted up the rhetoric over India’s international ties and in some cases, even the re-opening of settled bilateral agreements. At the start of the campaign, the ruling party focused on the issue of the half-century-old Katchatheevu agreement, that accepted the island as Sri Lankan territory, to target the Opposition Congress and the DMK that were in power in 1974. In response, Congress leaders asked whether the 2015 Land Boundary Agreement with Bangladesh could also be reviewed for its land concessions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has led the charge on other foreign policy fronts, especially on Pakistan, calling the Congress party a “disciple of Pakistan” and comparing its manifesto pejoratively to that of the Muslim League that founded Pakistan. U.P. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath even proclaimed that were Mr. Modi to be re-elected, he would reclaim Pakistan Occupied Kashmir “within six months”. Other brash comments over India’s use of its nuclear arsenal, or that the government will transgress international boundaries to kill ‘terrorists threatening India’, have raised eyebrows in many capitals. The clashes between the Indian Army and Chinese PLA at Galwan in 2020 that led to the deaths of 20 soldiers have often been raised by Opposition leaders in campaign rallies, as in the past as well. Meanwhile, throughout the campaign, Mr. Modi and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar accused “western powers” of attempting to interfere in Indian polls.

Such heated campaign rhetoric is meant for domestic audiences, but it would be unwise for political leaders to assume that India’s international partners are not watching and listening carefully. India’s ties with its smaller neighbours carry the highest levels of sensitivity, and raking up these issues and exposing India’s vulnerable faultlines, just to make political capital, seems short-sighted. While domestic policy has always been deeply divisive, India’s polity had for long achieved a bipartisanship when it came to foreign policy positions, and often took pride in the deployment of Opposition leaders to defend India’s case worldwide, including at the UN. The proper platform for the government to assert foreign policy, or for the Opposition to air its differences with it, is not the hustings, but Parliament. It is hoped that as the dust settles, leaders will reflect on the potential damage to India’s credibility from campaign propaganda, and restore a more enduring consensus on international relations.

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Title: Cannes do: On a big win for indie cinema at the 77th edition of the film festival

The moment after Payal Kapadia scripted history by becoming the first Indian film-maker to win the Grand Prix award at the Cannes film festival for All We Imagine as Light will be etched in cinematic memory. As the 38-year-old walked to the stage, she pulled along the three main women protagonists of her film, Kani Kusruti, Divya Prabha and Chhaya Kadam, and the four posing with the prize has become the shot of the 77th edition of the festival, definitely for Indians. Bagging the second highest honour after the Palme d’Or (which went to American director Sean Baker’s Anora) for her trilingual debut feature, an Indo-French collaboration, which shines a light on the story of two Malayali nurses and migrants working in ‘Maximum City’ Mumbai, is a big win for indie cinema. The last time an Indian film was in the competition section was 30 years ago with Shaji N. Karun’s Swaham in 1994. “Please don’t wait 30 years to have another Indian film,” Kapadia said in her acceptance speech. Eschewing the usual song-and-dance trope or larger-than-life heroes, Kapadia’s film is about a friendship between three very different women. She said friendship is a very important relationship for her, “because it can lead to greater solidarity, inclusivity and empathy towards each other. These are the values we should all be striving for”.

The other important takeaway is Kapadia’s remark that “it takes a village to make a film”. Thanking her cast and crew, Kapadia talked about the Indian film-making ecosystem — “There are interesting films being made in India, and I am only a product of that.” She also rooted for the Film and Television Institute of India (FTII), with which she had a run-in in 2015, where she said she watched world cinema. She was effusive about the strong film industry presence in most States, singling out the Malayalam film industry for its support to good cinema. India clearly made a splash at Cannes this year, with Kolkata’s Anasuya Sengupta winning the Best Actress in the Un Certain Regard section for her turn in Konstantin Bojanov’s The Shameless; British-Indian film-maker Karan Kandhari’s Sister Midnight in the parallel Director’s Fortnight selection; FTII student Chidananda S. Naik’s short Sunflowers Were The First Ones To Know winning the top prize in the official LaCinef section, Cannes’s competition for film school students; Cannes Classics releasing a remastered Manthan, Shyam Benegal’s 1976 film, and so forth. For Kapadia, this was her third outing in Cannes — she had won the best documentary prize in 2021. With the Grand Prix prize just three years later, Kapadia will inspire young independent film-makers to tell their stories, and, hopefully, get the backing they deserve.

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Title: In the dock: On Donald Trump and his legal challenge

Former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on the edge of history as potentially the first American to have held the highest public office in the country to be convicted on a felony charge. Mr. Trump has, in recent weeks, been pursuing his legal defence in the case brought by the U.S. District Attorney’s office in New York state involving 34 charges relating to hush-money that Mr. Trump allegedly paid to adult film actor Stormy Daniels, in exchange for her silence over a purported affair between the two of them. After six weeks of tortuous arguments, courtroom drama and political campaigning at the very doorsteps of the courthouse, the jury in the case will now deliberate on the facts laid out before them and possibly return a judgment in the coming weeks. During the trial, the prosecution sought to argue that the testimony of Michael Cohen, formerly Mr. Trump’s lawyer, made it clear beyond doubt that in paying off Ms. Daniels to the tune of $1,30,000 in 2016 over the alleged affair between them in 2006, Mr. Trump was guilty of falsifying business records to hide that expenditure and “orchestrated a scheme to keep unflattering information from voters in what was an early example of election interference”. Mr. Trump’s defence relied on painting Mr. Cohen a “liar” and seeking to discredit his account of Mr. Trump reimbursing him for the payout to Ms. Daniels.

Even if Mr. Trump is found guilty on any of the charges, he would leave the courthouse a free man as he has been on bail throughout the case thus far. He would seek to remain free at least until he appeals to the Appellate Division in Manhattan, and possibly faces the Court of Appeals. While each charge in the case carries a potential maximum sentence of four years, if there is a sentencing hearing, then the judge may take several factors into account, including Mr Trump’s age of 77 years, the lack of a previous conviction and the non-violent nature of the alleged crimes. Even if Mr. Trump successfully evades the full force of the law in the hush-money case, he faces three other felony indictments, including in federal and state cases relating to interference in the 2020 election, and his alleged role in the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, as well as allegations that he mishandled classified documents that were found at his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, after he had demitted office. While these cases are stuck in the appeals process and would be unlikely to reach trial this year, it is safe to say that no matter what the outcome of the jury’s deliberations is in the New York case, the political climate will only get further vitiated and polarised as the country lurches forward to the November 5 presidential election.

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Title: The last lap: On the French Open

For a good part of the last two decades, everything at the French Open seemed like a prelude to one man’s crowning moment on the concluding Sunday of the tournament. The year 2024, however, has turned out differently for Rafael Nadal, who had clinched the singles title on 14 of his 18 prior visits, as he made an emotional first-round exit on Monday, losing to fourth seed Alexander Zverev in straight sets. It was only the fourth time in 116 matches that the Spaniard had lost on Parisian clay, and the moment, more than any in recent times, had a valedictory feel to it. Ever since he suffered a hip injury at the 2023 Australian Open and missed the rest of the season, Nadal’s tennis future has been a huge question mark. The 22-time Major champion has not been very optimistic himself, for he perhaps knows that at nearly 38, and with an injury ravaged body that has allowed him to play just 12 times this year, the end is near. Yet, that has not stopped him from taking to the court with childlike enthusiasm. He played in Barcelona, Madrid and Rome — places where he has collectively secured 27 trophies — soaking in the fans’ adulation in what has come to resemble a much-deserved victory lap.

To be sure, Nadal has not closed the door on returning to his favourite stomping grounds on the red dirt in 2025. His immediate target is the 2024 Paris Olympics, whose tennis event will be held at Roland-Garros in late July-early August. But there is little doubt that the ground he once guarded with an iron fist is fertile for an almighty jostle to anoint a new king. World No.1 Novak Djokovic, the 24-time Major and three-time French Open champion, would have been the obvious favourite if his form had not nose-dived. He is without a title this season and has revamped his entire support staff to jump-start his year. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are both coming in after recovering from injuries. Alexander Zverev, who won the Rome Masters, seems dialled in but will have to deal with a domestic abuse trial in parallel. Casper Ruud, who won Barcelona and Geneva recently, will hope to go all the way after two straight runner-up finishes at Roland-Garros. Among women, three-time champion Iga Swiatek is the overwhelming favourite, and is expected to be challenged by Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff. For India, the singles challenge ended prematurely with Sumit Nagal’s loss, but Rohan Bopanna and Yuki Bhambri will aim to fly the flag high with their respective doubles partners.

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