Editorial – March 19, 2024

Title: Trade puzzle: On exports and global trade

Towards the end of a tumultuous trading year, India’s goods exports jumped 11.9% in February, marking the healthiest uptick in 20 months. The $41.4 billion tally is the highest in 11 months, and only the third occasion in two years that the $40 billion mark has been breached.

It is remarkable that this spurt, significantly higher than the average export tally of $35.4 billion in the first ten months of this year, comes amid persistent concerns about disruptions in the Red Sea and the drought-hit Panama Canal that have throttled vital trading routes and spiked the time and cost of moving consignments.

While the last two months’ trade numbers suggest that India is yet to feel the full impact of the logistics challenges for servicing key markets in Europe and the Americas, it may be too simplistic a conclusion.

It is plausible that some of February’s numbers may reflect shipments that were probably despatched earlier and reached their destinations only last month using longer routes. Economists believe a combination of backlogged orders attaining fruition and demand improvements may be at work. However, with interest rates still high, global demand conditions are yet to demonstrate the rebound the World Trade Organization (WTO) had hoped for in 2024.

The WTO expects global trade to rise 3.3% this year after a 0.8% crawl in 2023. But by its own reckoning, using a gauge called the Goods Trade Barometer, things are yet to perk up. As of March 8, the barometer, where a reading of over 100 reflects above-trend exim volumes, had a reading of just 100.6. The export orders parameter was marginally higher at 101.7 but container shipping slipped to 98.6. Some modest gains in the first quarter of 2024 may be seen owing to the base effects of a weak 2023, but any such gains could be easily derailed by regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions, the WTO has warned.

Policymakers may have turned upbeat about surpassing last year’s record overall exports (merchandise and services combined), but must not lose sight of the lingering risks and challenges, including the impact of freight hikes on margins.

While electronics goods exports have been an outlier in 2023-24’s weak exports narrative (-3.5% so far), the WTO’s latest barometer reading for electronic components trade has plummeted to 95.6. This is visible in February’s numbers as both electronics imports and exports grew just fractionally over 1%. For now, the trade deficit should not be a concern, despite imports jumping at a 17-month high pace last month, led by a spike in inflows of increasingly pricey gold.

Finding better ways to support exporters, especially in adversely hit employment-intensive sectors such as textiles, and gems and jewellery, remains critical.

Meaning of the important words

Words	Meaning
tumultuous	making an uproar or loud, confused noise.
persistent	continuing to do something or to try to do something even though it is difficult or other people want you to stop
disruptions	a major disturbance, something that changes your plans or interrupts some event or process
plausible	having an appearance of truth or reason; seemingly worthy of approval or acceptance; credible; believable:
fruition	the realization or fulfilment of a plan or project
backlogged	delayed because of a large number of things that are waiting to be dealt with
reckoning	the action or process of calculating or estimating something
derailed	to cause (a train, streetcar, etc.) to run off the rails of a track.
lingering	to remain or stay on in a place longer than is usual or expected, as if from reluctance to leave
plummeted	fall or drop straight down at high speed or decrease rapidly in value or amount.

Editorial – March 18, 2024

Title: Bonded favours: On the electoral bond scheme, sordid revelations

Sordid revelations that keep pouring from the disclosure of details about the purchasers and recipients of electoral bonds confirm the early apprehension of sceptics that the anonymous political funding scheme will have undesirable consequences.

Ranging from likely quid pro quo deals to flagrant proximity between companies being investigated by central agencies and the purchase of electoral bonds worth hundreds of crores by these firms, the scheme has played out exactly as its detractors predicted.

Fears that shell companies and loss-making entities may be used to buy the electoral bonds and donate them to parties seem to have come true. The argument that waiver of the rule that political donations can be made by companies only up to a certain percentage of their profits will render the scheme illegal has been proved right. The Supreme Court of India did well to voice these concerns, flagging the potential for wrongdoing and striking down the bonds scheme in its entirety as unconstitutional.

However, the delay in disposing of the multiple challenges to the scheme, without ever staying its operation over the years, has had its own cost. It is a sobering thought for all those invested in democracy to note that the political and corporate classes have lived up to the public expectation that they are ready to use the scheme for mutual benefit rather than solve the problem of unclean funds vitiating the election campaign.

Some details about who donated to which party are emerging now, thanks to a few parties having disclosed their names and given them to the Election Commission of India on the Court’s orders.However, it is disappointing that both the ruling BJP and the Congress didnot disclose them even in sealed covers. It is possible that there will be more revelations in the coming days when unique numbers given to each bond are disclosed.

The role of investigative agencies has been politically controversial, especially under the present regime, but the strong correlation between searches and arrests on one hand, and the dates of purchase of bonds on the other, shows the Centre in a bad light. It will be a dark day for democracy if it emerges that the agencies were used to arm-twist people into making political contributions.

The BJP has, unsurprisingly, emerged as the largest beneficiary, having received well above ₹6,000 crore and nearly half the contributions made through the bonds route. However, its attempt to describe contributions as comparatively low if seen against the fact that it has the largest number of Lok Sabha members is quite naive, or worse, self-incriminating. Power and influence do attract political funding, but misusing them either by muscular demonstration or the promise of reward will ultimately be subversive of democracy.

Meaning of the important words

Words	Meaning
Sordid	involving immoral or dishonourable actions and motives; arousing moral distaste and contempt.
apprehension	the act or power of perceiving or comprehending
flagrant	conspicuously bad or objectionable
detractors	someone who criticizes something or someone
entirety	with all parts included
sobering	creating a more serious, sensible, or solemn mood.
vitiating	spoil or impair the quality or efficiency
regime	a government, especially an authoritarian one
self-incriminating	the act of saying or doing something that shows that you are guilty of a crime:
subversive	seeking or intended to subvert an established system or institution.

Editorial March 15, 2024

Square one: On the 2024 U.S. Presidential election as a Biden-Trump rematch

Both Republicans and Democrats need alternative voices to articulate their vision

With the exit of Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina, from the U.S. Republican nomination race for the 2024 presidential election, the country is now set to witness a rematch of the 2020 contest between the incumbent, President Joe Biden, and his challenger, former President Donald Trump.

It is hardly a surprise that the contest has reverted to this match-up yet again, given that they are the only two leaders who have made the cut as viable candidates for their respective parties over the many months on the campaign trail. On the Republican side, Ms. Haley likely reflected the hopes of some among those who stood for the conservative values of the Republican Party mainstream, which is facing an unprecedented challenge from Mr. Trump and his nativist-populist style of politics.

Nevertheless, voters at the primaries and caucuses clearly leaned towards Mr. Trump, perhaps under the assumption that he had left behind, at the end of his term in the Oval Office, an unfinished political agenda to Make America Great Again.

On the Democratic side, at 81 years of age, it is Mr. Biden’s ability to yet again live up to the rigours of being in office that remains a question mark, even among the party faithful. Yet more worrying from the perspective of the long-term prospects of the Democratic Party is the fact is that there has been no other leader from among their ranks with the national stature and sufficient charisma to navigate the party through an election in which they are challenged by the likes of Mr. Trump.

While polls have given Mr. Trump a robust lead over Mr. Biden, at this stage in the election cycle, the outcome of the political clash between the two men will depend on factors such as voter turnout, the preferences of independent voters in swing States, and the impact that the many legal cases against Mr. Trump could have on his ability to campaign and persuade voters that he is a victim of a conspiracy by the Democrats.

The absence of alternative leadership in both parties beyond the two current contestants suggests that politics in America has not moved past pre-existing conditions of partisan deadlock, even though it is abundantly clear that business-as-usual politics does not serve the U.S.’s national interest.

The best that the country could hope for in the next election cycle, perhaps, is for alternative voices within both parties to articulate a new vision undergirding the American Dream, a brand of leadership that embraces the new paradigm of national and global politics today.

Important words and their meanings:

Incumbent – A person who is currently in an official position.

Viable – Capable of working successfully.

Unprecedented – Never done or known before.

Populist – Relating to politician or political movements that claim to represent the interests and wishes of ordinary people.

Caucuses – Meetings of members of a political party to select delegates or decide policy.

Stature – The importance and respect that somebody has because people have a high opinion of his/her skill or of what he/she has done.

Charisma – A powerful personal quality that some people have to attract and influence other people.

Turnout – The number of people attending or participating in an event.

Deadlock – A situation in which two sides cannot reach an agreement.

Articulate – Good at expressing your ideas clearly.

Paradigm – A typical example or pattern of something, model.

Editorial March 13, 2024

Title: A tale of two: On alliance-building by BJP and Congress

After raising its stakes in the forthcoming general election by declaring a target of 400 seats along with allies, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is mopping up political partners across the country to resurrect the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Just as the BJP is courting allies with alacrity, the putative alliance of Opposition parties that appeared on the horizon in mid-2023 is unravelling, if at all it ever took any concrete form. The BJP has announced a tie-up with Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party which had parted ways in 2018 over the issue of unfulfilled promises for Andhra Pradesh.

Mr. Naidu has slowly made his way back to the NDA by distancing himself from the Opposition. The BJP is assiduously courting the Biju Janata Dal, to revive their alliance formed between 1998-2009, in Odisha. The Akali Dal is waiting for the farmers’ agitation to blow over before it could make its next move, potentially to march back to the NDA camp.

Efforts are on to bring the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam back into the NDA’s fold in Tamil Nadu. The most striking of all the recent realignments has been that of Janata Dal (United) chief and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is now championing a third consecutive term for the BJP at the Centre, after calling for its defeat in the preceding months.

A corresponding disarray is evident in the Opposition camp, as parties and individual leaders are jumping on the BJP bandwagon. The emaciated INDIA bloc also suffers from incoherence with allies such as the Trinamool Congress which, after weeks of talks with the Congress, announced candidates for all 42 seats of West Bengal, leaving nothing for the principal Opposition party.

To add insult to injury, Mamata Banerjee has fielded cricketer Yusuf Pathan from Baharampur against Congress state President Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury. In Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena (UBT) has unilaterally announced some candidates, threatening the alliance with the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) and the Congress.

In Kerala, the Left parties and the Congress, two key proponents of national Opposition unity will be facing off. This usual paradox is starker this time, as Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and CPI leader Annie Raja are opponents in Wayanad. It is not a coincidence that many of the leaders and parties that are taking positions convenient for the BJP, if not openly joining hands with it, are facing investigations by central agencies.

This role of the state in influencing party politics in India is a disturbing sign for the health of Indian democracy, and also of the inglorious records of the many Opposition leaders.

Meaning of the important words

mopping – the act of cleaning a surface by rubbing it with a brush and soap and water

alacrity – brisk and cheerful readiness.

resurrect – to bring someone back to life, or bring something back into use or existence after it disappeared

unravelling – investigate and solve or explain

putative – commonly accepted or supposed

assiduously – with great care and perseverance

realignments – Changing position

disarray – the state of being confused

bandwagon – used in reference to an activity, cause, etc. that is currently fashionable or popular and attracting increasing support.

paradox – a logically self-contradictory statement or a statement that runs contrary to one’s expectation

inglorious – causing shame or a loss of honour.

Editorial March 12, 2024

Names And Bonds: On Electoral Bonds Scheme, The Supreme Court, And The State Bank Of India

The Supreme Court’s refusal to grant any further time to the State Bank of India (SBI) to furnish details of those who purchased and parties that encashed electoral bonds since April 2019 has foiled an ill-advised attempt to seek postponement of the disclosure until after the general election.

The SBI has now been asked to disclose to the Election Commission of India (ECI), by the end of March 12, the names of details of the purchasers of the bonds, the dates on which these were bought, and denominations.

The bank should also disclose the names of parties that redeemed the bonds, along with dates and denominations. The ECI has to host the information on its website by March 15. The upshot of the bank’s application for time until June 30 is that it is now quite clear that it must disclose the data available to it, and need not try and match the names of the donors with the parties.

It appears that the initial directions of the Constitution Bench, as part of its February 15 judgment invalidating the electoral bonds scheme, had been construed to mean that the SBI was required to match with exactitude all the purchasers with the recipients. The bank deemed this a “time-consuming” exercise, as the details were in separate silos and not stored in digital format.

In rejecting the bank’s application for time and keeping the threat of contempt action alive, the Court has sent a message that it will not brook any further delay. The Bench has also rightly questioned the bank’s silence on what had been done to comply with the order until the filing of an application for extension of time, just two days before the March 6 deadline.

It is now quite apparent that even manually matching the two datasets could not have taken as long as the four months the SBI wanted. A question may arise as to whether the voters’ right to information, the very basis for the Court finding the anonymous donation scheme unconstitutional, will be fulfilled by mere disclosure of the names of bond purchasers and the parties that received the funds, without authentic data on who donated what amount to which party.

Given that the bonds have to be redeemed within a 15-day window, it may still be possible for a diligent civil society to use the disclosures to match donors and parties based on the proximity between dates of purchase and redemption.

The data may also help unravel whether corporate houses or individuals benefited from their donations to ruling parties at the Centre and in the States, or if the contributions were made in response to any threat of investigation and prosecution.

Meaning of the important words:

Encashed – to exchange (a cheque) for cash.

Disclosure – the action of making new or secret information known

Redeemed – compensate for the faults or bad aspects of.

Contempt – a strong feeling of disliking and having no respect for someone or something

Anonymous – not named or identified

Diligent – constant in effort to accomplish something; attentive and persistent in doing anything

Disclosures – having or showing care and conscientiousness in one’s work or duties.

Proximity – nearness or closeness

Redemption – an act of redeeming or atoning for a fault or mistake, or the state of being redeemed

Prosecution – the institution and conducting of legal proceedings against someone in respect of a criminal charge.

Editorial March 11, 2024

Crisis of time: On parched Karnataka and its water woes

Rapid growth, such as Bengaluru’s this century, and short-termism cannot coexist.

The Karnataka water crisis has affected more than 7,000 villages, 1,100 wards, and 220 talukas thus far. The problem encompasses Mandya and Mysuru districts, where a major Cauvery river watershed and the Krishnaraja Sagar dam are located, and both important sources of water to Bengaluru. While the capital has hogged the headlines, the effects of the crisis are wider.

Reports have suggested that the distal cause is the ‘insufficient’ rainfall last year, following the surplus in 2022, and the resulting under-‘replenishment’ of the Cauvery. Erratic rainfall is not new to Karnataka.

A Coffee Agro-forestry Network (CAFNET) project, a decade ago, assessed 60 years of data and found the rainy season over Kodagu had shrunk by two weeks in three decades while annual rainfall seemed to undulate in a 12-14-year cycle.

Yet, the crisis now has come as a surprise thanks to Bengaluru’s lack of preparation, a travesty for being one of India’s wealthiest urban municipalities and home to many research institutions. Bengaluru consumes roughly 1,400 million litres a day each from the Cauvery and groundwater reserves.

The groundwater recharge rate is much lower while the Cauvery’s was compromised by last year’s ‘deficient’ rain. These are deficits only relative to Bengaluru’s demand. The situation is worse further away from the city’s centre. This is ironic because these areas do not receive piped water from the Cauvery and depend on groundwater and water tankers, whereas the city was engineered for centuries until the 19th to move away from water from distant sources and towards its surfeit of lakes.

Seasonal lakes have since dwindled, while perennial lakes have been strangled by concretisation and sewage.

Climate change is a crisis of time. It precipitates non-linear changes that lead to disproportionate, and sometimes irreversible, outcomes, forcing underprepared governments to mount rapid responses to forces that have been festering for decades. Even if the erratic rainfall is unrelated to climate change, the phenomenon only promises more unpredictability. In this regard, Bengaluru, and most Indian cities, will achieve little when they mount stopgap measures in the event of a crisis and drop the long-term view once the crisis has ended. Rapid growth, such as Bengaluru has had this century, and short-termism cannot coexist.

There is a need for bipartisan solutions that transcend the change in government every five years; a circular water economy that maximises the utility of every litre, reducing the city’s dependence on external sources; and, not to forget, a clean and healthy Cauvery.

Meanings:

Parched – Extremely dry due to lack of water or moisture.

Woes – Great unhappiness or distress.

Hogged – To take or keep too much or all of something for yourself.

Distal – Distal refers sites located away from a specific area, most often the center of the body.

Replenishment – The action of making something full again by replacing what has been used.

Undulate – Move or go with a smooth up-and-down motion.

Travesty – something that does not have the qualities or values that it should have, and as a result is often shocking or offensive.

Surfeit – Too much of something.

Dwindle – To become smaller or weaker.

Perennial – That happens often or that lasts for a long time.